Written by Jesse Morse, MD
Yes, I believe there is a way to get a good idea which rookie wide receivers are likely to be fantasy-relevant in their rookie season.
If we examine the Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) for both their final year of college and then their college career YPRR we begin to see something interesting.
Let’s review how the 2024 class did and compare it to their rookie seasons.
If we look at the 2023 YPRR and rank them for top 20, this is what it looks like.
Shout out to @AustinAbbottFF on X for the chart & info
Let’s highlight a couple:
- Malik Nabers - 3.64
- Marvin Harrison Jr. - 3.44
- Troy Franklin - 3.32
- Ladd McConkey - 3.26
- Javon Baker - 3.21
- Xavier Legette - 3.15
- Malik Washington - 3.15
- Tahj Washington - 3.06
- Rome Odunze - 2.93
- Malachi Corley - 2.78
- Jermaine Burton - 2.75
- Brenden Rice - 2.75
- Roman Wilson. 2.68
- Ryan Flournoy - 2.64
- Brian Thomas Jr. - 2.61
Now let’s add draft capital, taking only the WRs selected in the first 3 rounds
- Malik Nabers - 3.64
- Marvin Harrison Jr. - 3.44
- Ladd McConkey - 3.26
- Xavier Legette - 3.15
- Rome Odunze - 2.93
- Malachi Corley - 2.78
- Jermaine Burton - 2.75
- Roman Wilson. 2.68
- Brian Thomas Jr. - 2.61
- Jalen McMillian - 2.3
- Ja’Lynn Polk - 2.29
- Ricky Pearsall - 2.33
- Xavier Worthy - 2.14
- Luke McCaffrey - 2.11
- Keon Coleman - 1.74
- Adonai Mitchell - 1.72
Finally I personally believe landing spot along with competition/depth chart plays a large role in their effectiveness.
Nabers was the alpha, the top WR by far for the Giants. Despite awful QB play he still smashed. He’s a top 5 dynasty WR and I could easily justify taking him in the first round of either a redraft and definitely a top 3 pick in dynasty.
Marvin Harrison Jr. disappointed for where he was drafted and how much people were calling him a generational WR. He putting up surprisingly similar results to his father in his rookie season. He still finished as the WR30 in PPR, so there’s a ton of room for growth; there’s still hope.
Ladd McConkey was one of the best WRs in the NFL. He reminds me of a gritty younger version of Cooper Kupp. If NFL teams could redraft again, McConkey definitely ends up in the 1st round. He finished as the WR13 in PPR despite dealing with a couple different injuries and a slow start to the season. Potential top 5 WR in 2025.
Xavier Legette flashed some big play potential but overall disappointed. His teammate Jalen Coker actually looked much better at times.
Rome Odunze was also a big disappointment of the top WRs, but he had significant competition for targets with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Caleb Williams was also struggling and the coaching was abysmal. I think he bounces back this year but the Bears essentially swapped Keenan Allen for a younger version of DJ Moore in Luther Burden III.
Malachi Corley was never really relevant for the Jets. He was buried on the depth chart behind Garrett Wilson, a bunch of nobodies and eventually Davante Adams. Curious to see how he does in 2025 with Justin Fields.
Jermaine Burton, also buried on the depth chart behind 2 superstars in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, also struggled to get out of his own way. I don’t expect much to change in 2025
Roman Wilson suffered multiple injuries and his rookie season was pretty much a wash. He could end up being the WR2 in Pittsburgh behind DK Metcalf. I’m not ready to give up on him yet.
Brian Thomas Jr. was the most impressive WR in the class. Kid is a super star. Absolutely smashed finishing the season as the WR4 despite playing half his games with Mac Jones. I think BTJ plants himself as a top 10 WR this year with new coaching and hopefully an improved Trevor Lawrence. His rookie season wasn’t a fluke, and his YPRR didn’t reflect as much as his draft capital did (23rd overall).
Jalen McMillian was another rookie buried on the depth chart. He had to compete with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otton for targets. Once Godwin went down with his season-ending ankle injury we saw McMillian really step up nicely. It’s hard to know how he will do in 2025 with essentially the same guys ahead of him but now adding Egbuka to the mix as well.
Polk flashed some potential a couple times but overall he was disappointing as the Patriots were a mess. Curious to see how effective he is in 2025 with a year under his belt, probably sliding in as the WR3 or 4 in a likely run-heavy offense. That’s not very good and not someone I will have interest in.
Ricky Pearsall would have likely struggled in his rookie season due to how far he was on the depth chart - buried behind Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings. Unfortunately he was shot in a freak accident in San Francisco that essentially derailed his rookie season. He contributed late in the season, but with Aiyuk returning from his ACL tear, Deebo now in Washington, I expect Pearsall to slide in as the WR2 early in the season behind Jennings.
Xavier Worthy is another guy where his draft capital spoke volumes. He benefited from Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown’s near-season ending chest injury. His speed was immediately evident on the field and despite not getting a ton of volume, he was constantly a threat to score. He finished as the WR33. Mahomes has really regressed these past few years. I think there’s a chance Worthy is the Chiefs WR2 in 2025, behind Rashee Rice assuming his knee bounces back. Beautifully complementing Brown, aging future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce and exciting rookie Jalen Royals.
Luke McCaffrey essentially did nothing in his rookie season; similar to his brother. Hard to know what to expect from him as he’s still even further buried on the depth chart by Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, the veteran Zach Ertz and several others.
Keon Coleman’s YPRR was really low (1.74) compared to where the Bills drafted him - 1st pick of the 2nd round. He had a mixed rookie season and demonstrated why his YPRR was so low. I’m not ready to get too excited about him for 2025 but I think he should have a better season than he did in 2024 (WR71). I expect him to be slotted behind Khalil Shakir, likely competing with Elijah Moore and Joshua Palmer, and Dalton Kincaid. Size-wise he’s one of the bigger WRs on their roster as Amari Cooper didn’t resign, and Mack Hollins is now a Patriot.
The final WR drafted in the first 3 rounds of the 2024 draft was Adonai Mitchell, who really struggled with the Colts. The QB play by Anthony Richardson was abysmal, and he was also buried on the depth chart behind Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., and Alec Pierce. It’s difficult for me to see him as a regularly contributing player that’s draft worthy, even if Daniel Jones becomes the QB.
The only WR that wasn’t drafted in the first 3 rounds that was fantasy-relevant in his rookie season was Devaughn Vele, a 7th round pick to the Broncos. His 2023 YPRR was a poor 1.81, and his career YPRR was an even worse 1.51. He finished as the WR75, so not exactly fantasy-relevant.
How did the rookie WRs finish in PPR?
- Brian Thomas Jr. - WR4
- Malik Nabers - WR6
- Ladd McConkey - WR13
- Marvin Harrison Jr.- WR30
- Xavier Worthy - WR33
- Rome Odunze - WR49
- Jalen McMillian - WR55
- Keon Coleman - WR71
As you can see if you start 3 WRs or even 4 in a 12-team league, then really only the first 50 WRs are relevant. Yes there’s bye weeks and injuries that need to be accounted for but you really want to target WRs that can finish in the top 30. As we can see last year, the only rookie WRs that finished in the top 30 had a YPPR of 3.00+ (Nabers, McConkey and MHJ) and then there was the big surprise in BTJ.
Now let’s look at the 2025 rookie WR class.
First I’m going to list the WRs that had a YPRR above 2.5.
- Tre Harris - 5.12
- Dont’e Thornton Jr. - 3.72
- Tory Horton - 3.45
- Jalen Royals - 3.00
- Ricky White III - 2.93
- Tetaiora McMillian - 2.87
- Pat Bryant - 2.83
- Kyle Williams - 2.71
- KeAndre Lambert-Smith - 2.70
- Jayden Higgins - 2.66
- Jaylin Noel - 2.62
- Tez Johnson - 2.60
- Jordan Watkins - 2.54
- Emeka Egbuka - 2.51
- Travis Hunter 2.51
Now let’s add draft capital, taking only the WRs selected in the first 3 rounds
- Tre Harris - 5.12
- Tetaiora McMillian - 2.87
- Pat Bryant - 2.83
- Kyle Williams - 2.71
- Jayden Higgins - 2.66
- Jaylin Noel - 2.62
- Emeka Egbuka - 2.51
- Travis Hunter 2.51
- Jack Bech - 2.44
- Tai Felton - 2.32
- Luther Burden III - 2.32
- Savion Williams - 2.1
- Matthew Golden - 2.1
- Issac TeSlaa - 1.98
‘Tet’ was once considered a generational WR, and he may actually live up to the hype. He was drafted with the 8th pick to the Panthers and many have compared to a potentially better version of Drake London. Fantastic size, and he should finish as the WR1 in this class for points-scored in his rookie season, or definitely in the top 3 (assuming he stays healthy). He should immediately skyrocket to the top of the Panthers depth chart and he could get 125+ targets from Bryce Young this year, who looked much better in the 2nd half of the 2024 season. Jalen Coker, Hunter Renfrow, Xavier Legette will compliment Tet well. Adam Thielen’s more of a mentor at this point in his career.
The first WR off the board, Travis Hunter, is tied for the 14th best YPRR from 2024 in this class. His career YPRR is even worse at a 2.42. If Hunter wasn’t also considered one of the best CBs in the class I’m not sure he gets drafted before the 2nd round, mayne in the 3rd round. He will immediately slide in as the WR2 behind Brian Thomas Jr., and ahead of Parker Washington and will compete with Brenton Strange for targets. It will be interesting to see if he can finish in the top 40 in PPR in his rookie season.
The player with the highest YPPR in the class, one of the highest ever, is Tre Harris with an insane 5.12. His draft capital backs him up as he went late in the 2nd round to the Chargers. He will compliment Ladd McConkey well and could absolutely smash in 2025. The stack of Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton, and Tre Harris could feed families this year.
Pat Bryant is a very interesting name on this list. He could immediately slide in as the WR2 in Denver for Bo Nix behind Courtland Sutton, competing with Marvin Mims for targets. I expect this offense to be exciting with RJ Harvey playing the bellcow role and Evan Engram playing the joker role.
Kyle Williams found himself a perfect landing spot with the Patriots. He has break-away speed and could find himself as the WR1 for Drake Maye. Stefon Diggs is the presumptive WR1 but he’s coming back from an ACL tear and that’s always tricky in the first year back, especially for a 32 year old. The rest of the WRs including Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry, Ja’Lynn Polk, Javon Baker and Mack Hollins will fight for the rest of the targets.
Jayden Higgins could find himself immediately as the WR2 for CJ Stroud. Nico Collins has top 10 WR potential in 2025 if he can stay healthy, but I expect Higgins to replace Stefon Diggs’ role while his teammate Jaylin Noel taken in the middle of the 3rd round could assume the Tank Dell role. I expect Dell to miss the entire 2025 season recovering from a dislocated knee.
Emeka Egbuka is another talented WR that hails from OSU. Unfortunately he landed on a team loaded with WRs ahead of him, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillian and Cade Otton. Despite how much Baker Mayfield throws, that’s a lot of mouths to feed. Egbuka reminds me of 2 different situations - first Jaxon Smtih-Njigba in SEA when he was buried behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in his rookie season. The other is his new teammate McMillian, who only became relevant after Godwin went down with his season-ending ankle injury. Speaking of Godwin, I expect him to be ready for Week 1 as he is returning from a dislocated (and possibly fractured) ankle. Egbuka is super talented but I’m avoiding him in his rookie season for the aforementioned reasons.
Jack Bech was a name that surprised many on draft weekend as he was selected by the Raiders in the 2nd round. He could easily slide in as the WR2 behind Jakobi Meyers with a new revamped offense led by Geno Smith, phenom rookie RB Ashton Jeanty and elite TE Brock Bowers. The Raiders offense should have the best offense they’ve had in years.
Tai Felton is a sneaky name on this list. He posted a solid YPRR of 2.32 in his last college season and now gets to serve as the WR3 role behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. He will catch passes from a QB I’m excited about in JJ McCarthy and he will also have to compete with TJ Hockenson for targets as well.
Despite being drafted as the 6th WR off the board to the Bears, many thought he might go early in round 1. A YAC specialist, Luther Burden III only posted the 18th best YPRR in his class based on 2024 numbers. Despite Keenan Allen gone, the Bears still have plenty of weapons including DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and fellow rookie Colston Loveland. The good news is that Burden should get to learn the ropes from a player many people have compared him to - DJ Moore. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ben Johnson generated plays for Burden similar to what he did with Jameson Williams the last few years.
The Packers drafted 2 WRs in the 2025 draft, including Matthew Golden in the late first round and then Savion Williams in the late 3rd round. Golden has the potential to be the best Packers WR. After losing Christian Watson to a torn ACL, the Packers could really use a speedy WR to fill that role. I believe that’s what Golden does for them. Williams sounds like is more of a gadget player, and may end up taking some of those WR runs normally designed for Jayden Reed. The Packers also have Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs in addition to Tucker Kraft. Lots of mouths to feed and likely a corps I’m going to avoid for fantasy purposes in 2025.
The WR who had the lowest YPRR in 2024 was also the biggest surprise in the draft was Isaac TeSlaa. He was drafted early in the 3rd round, and is likely going to be buried on the depth chart under Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta. Likely not going to be fantasy relevant in 2025.
So other names that could surprise that were drafted after the 3rd round include Jaylen Royals, Elic Ayomanor, Tory Hornton and Dont’e Thornton Jr.
Jaylen Royals posted the 4th best YPPR in 2024 with a 3.00. He could easily slide in as the 2nd best WR for the Chiefs, joining Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Travis Kelce.
Elic Ayomanor didn’t have the best YPRR (1.90) but many people really seem to like him. He landed with the #1 pick, Cam Ward, in Tennessee. He will likely slide in behind veterans Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett and compete with fellow rookie Chimere Dike and UDFA Xavier Restrepo.
Tony Hornton posted a monster YPRR of 3.45 which ranks 3rd only to Harris and Thornton. There were some injury concerns that had been raised, causing him to fall to the late fifth round to the Seahawks. The Seahawks don’t have much depth behind JSN, with Metcalf now in Pittsburgh and Lockett in Tennessee. There’s a couple tight ends and then Jake Bobo. I think there’s a decent chance Hornton may be fantasy-relevant if he proves to be a reliable option for Sam Darnold.
I don’t know much about Dont’e Thornton Jr. put he put up some monster numbers in his final year at Tennessee. Thornton Jr. is in a similar situation to Jack Bech with the Raiders, as they are really only competing with Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers for targets. Yes Tre Tucker and Michael Mayer are both still there but I don’t think either are really fantasy relevant. Thornton Jr. could prove to be another reliable weapon for Geno Smith. These are deep sleepers and not someone you should consider drafting unless it’s the deepest of leagues.
I’m personally going to be targeting these rookie WRs in redrafts:
Tetaiora McMillian, Kyle Williams, Tre Harris, Travis Hunter, Jaylen Royals, Luther Burden III and Jayden Higgins in that order.
In deeper leagues/best ball I’d consider Pat Bryant, Jaylin Noel and Tory Hornton.