Written by: Jesse Morse, MD
I decided to review all the running backs that finished as the RB1 since 2000 (using PPR scoring). I looked at their age, how many seasons they had played, chances as a rookie, and most common season to complete it in. After that my goal was to try to figure out which RBs have the most likely chances of finishing as the RB1 in 2025.
Before we look at the data, here’s the potential list:
Bijan Robinson
Jahymr Gibbs
Saquon Barkley
Christian McCaffrey
Derrick Henry
Josh Jacobs
Kyren Williams
Jonathan Taylor
De’Von Achane
Alvin Kamara
Bucky Irving
Breece Hall
James Cook
Chase Brown
Joe Mixon
Aaron Jones
Chuba Hubbard
James Conner
Kenneth Walker
Tony Pollard
Ashton Jeanty
Omarion Hampton
TreVeyon Henderson
Quinshon Judkins
Kaleb Johnson
Basically the top 25 RBs by ADP with a couple outliers.
Now let’s try to narrow this down but seeing what the data shows:
Looking at which season the players most likely finished there were 2 that really stuck out: 6th season and 2nd season.
The only RB currently in their 6th season that has a realistic chance at finishing as the RB1 is Jonathan Taylor. The other players, D’Andre Swift, CEH, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, and Antonio Gibson are unrealistic to finish as the RB1 in 2025.
Jonathan Taylor is 26 years old, finished as the RB1 in 2021, but has struggled to stay healthy over the past 3 seasons. Taylor has never been much of a receiver over the past 3 seasons, but did catch 40 passes in 2021. The QB situation in Indy will be something to monitor. If Anthony Richardson secures the job then I’m not as high on JT as if Daniel Jones becomes the starter. Taylor finished the 2024 season strong with performances of 39.8, 27.6, and 25 fantasy points. If he gets 20+ touches per game, including 2-4 receptions, and stays healthy then reclaiming the RB1 spot is possible. I personally don’t think he’s going to finish in the top 6.
Here’s a list of the RBs that are in their 2nd season and can realistically finish as the RB1: Bucky Irving. That’s it. One name.
Others that are entering their 2nd year in the NFL but are less likely include MarShawn Lloyd (injuries, Josh Jacobs), Jaylen Wright (De’Von Achane), Blake Corum (Kyren Williams), Trey Benson (James Conner), Issac Guerendo (CMC), Ray Davis (James Cook) and Tyrone Tracy (Devin Singletary, Cam Skattebo). Jonathan Brooks has already been ruled out for the rest of the year as he recovers from his 2nd ACL tear.
Bucky Irving finished as the RB13 in PPR despite not getting a full workload until Week 10. He dethroned Rachaad White and completely took over the backfield in the 2nd half of the season. He caught 47 passes, averaged over 5.4 YPC and is still only 22 years old. No one expected Irving to smash like he did, but now the Raiders are hoping Jeanty, their 6th pick overall, can emulate what the Bucs 2024 4th round pick did in his rookie season. The Bucs didn’t add any competition for Irving, so the assumption is that it will be more of the same. I’m super bullish on Bucky for 2025 and I’m giving him the 4th highest odds to finish as the RB1. Yes please.
The other 2nd year back that could surprise is Issac Guerendo. He flashed potential last year with scores of 19.2 and 26.8 fantasy points after Christian McCaffrey went down with injury. Yes the 49ers still have CMC, and they drafted Jordan James, but would anyone be surprised if CMC missed another big chunk of the season and his backup smashed again? Nope. That’s essentially what happened to Jordan Mason last year, but now he’s a Viking. Guerrendo would need another season-ending injury from CMC, to stay healthy himself and then get crazy volume all season to even have a chance. Possible but unrealistic.
The last player to go back-to-back RB1s is Priest Holmes in 2002-03. Yes, over 20 years ago! It’s nearly impossible to repeat on back to back years in today’s NFL. Last year’s RB1 was Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s healthy, young, still in an elite offense, and has a very solid injury history. I definitely wouldn’t rule out Gibbs repeating. IMO he’s on the short list of guys that can truly finish as the RB1 in 2025. He’s my RB1 right now.
The other most likely option is Bijan Robinson, who finished in third behind Saquon Barkley and Gibbs last year, about 20 points behind. The Falcons have an improved QB, improved offense, with no new added threats behind him. Tyler Allgeier’s carries have dropped in each of the past 3 years, going from 210 in 2022 to 186 in 2023 to 137 in 2024. Bijan’s went up from 214 in 2023 to 304 in 2024. He achieved impressive receiving volume, with 72 targets, which was down from 2023 (86) but his receptions actually went up 61 (from 58).
The average age overall (2000-2024) to finish as the RB1 is 25.3 years old, but narrowing that down over the past decade (2014-2024), the average age is 23.2. Think young, fresh legs.
The last player to repeat in non-consecutive years was Christian McCaffrey (2019, 2023). For 2025 that list would include CMC again, Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, and Austin Ekeler.
Let’s briefly talk about age.
The last 29+ year old to finish as the RB1 was Tiki Barber in 2004. Over 20 years ago. It simply doesn’t happen anymore.
The oldest RB to finish as the RB1 since 2000 was Priest Holmes, when he amazingly went back-to-back in 2003.
Here’s a list of the current older RBs that realistically have a shot at the RB1 title:
Derrick Henry (31)
Aaron Jones (30)
James Conner (30)
Alvin Kamara (30)
Christian McCaffrey (29)
Joe Mixon (29)
Saquon Barkley (28)
Tony Pollard (28)
Josh Jacobs (27)
Derrick Henry is a physical beast. His ability to get better as the year goes on is truly impressive. Despite concerns about losing carries and effectiveness with Lamar Jackson at QB, Henry had one of his best seasons yet in 2024. Despite being 31 years old, Henry is a genetic freak, and I don’t believe that age really applies to him. He’s kind of like the LeBron James of the NFL. Henry has one of the lowest missed games rate out of any running back in the past decade (only 12 missed games in 9 seasons)! With that being said because he doesn’t catch many passes, making it a lot harder for him to take the crown in PPR scoring, but he will definitely be in the running.
Aaron Jones has finished in the top 15 in 5 of 8 seasons, and as high as RB2 (2019). He’s been able to stay really healthy throughout his career, with the only time he missed more than 2 games in a season since 2018 was 2023. He’s always been a fantastic receiving back and gets lots of rushing yards but rarely falls into the end zone. He’s the main RB in a potent offense headlined by Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson with JJ McCarthy at QB. Jordan Mason will likely steal the TDs from him which could hurt but Jones is a sneaky veteran and a dark horse candidate for the RB1.
James Conner’s biggest issue is staying healthy. He’s missed at least 3 games in 5 of 8. He’s never played all 16/17 games which makes it nearly impossible to finish as the RB1. He’s finished in the top 10 twice (2018, 2021), and he was the RB11 in 2024 despite missing a game. His competition hasn’t particularly changed from last year but I don’t have much faith in his recurrent knee injuries to roll the dice on him finishing as the RB1. Pass.
Alvin Kamara has finished in the top 11 in PPR in 7 of 8 seasons. That’s ridiculous. The only season he missed? He finished as the RB16. He’s never missed more than 4 games in a season, and is a PPR monster. If there’s any veteran that I’m willing to bet on finishing as the RB1, it’s Alvin Kamara. The Saints are a dumpster fire. Derek Carr just retired. Their QB situation is a nightmare. Kamara’s backup (Miller) has major hamstring issues. Their WR1 (Olave) is possibly one concussion away from retiring. Kamara could very easily be their only reliable source of offense in 2025. I want him on every team.
Christian McCaffrey is by far the most polarizing name on this list. He finished as the RB1 in 2019 and 2023. Last year he only managed to play in 3.5 games due to a combination of calf, Achilles and knee injuries. Does CMC deserve to be on this list? No doubt. Do I trust him to stay healthy? No, not at all. I think he lost his safety net of being a mandatory 1st round pick but if he gets his regular volume in 2025 and if he stays healthy, he will finish in the top 3, likely the RB1. Those are 2 big ifs. Yes the 49ers added Jordan James, but traded Jordan Mason. Issac Guerendo becomes a sneaky dark horse if CMC were to miss a bunch of time like he did in 2020, 2021, and 2024. CMC has finished 1st twice, 2nd twice and 10th once (rookie) in his 5 full seasons. McCaffrey again will be a feature in the offense, along with Kittle and Jennings as Deebo is now catching passes in D.C and Aiyuk is rehabbing from his ACL.
Joe Mixon has had a fantastic, somewhat underrated career. He’s been super reliable his entire 8 year career, finishing in the top 13 five times, with finishing as the RB4 and RB6 since 2021. He’s really only missed 2 chunks of games - in 2020 when he missed 10 games with a significant foot injury (Lisfranc) and then a high-ankle sprain last season that caused him to impressively miss only 3 games. His rushing volume has been solid, and he’s usually good for 35-60 receptions. The Texans only added Woody Marks in the 4th round, otherwise Dameon Pierce is Mixon’s biggest threat. There’s rumbles that JK Dobbins might be added as well. I expect Mixon to rumble into the endzone and likely finish in the RB10-18 range in 2025 but I don’t think RB1 is realistic. Pass.
Saquon Barkley finished 2024 as the RB2, his 2nd-best season after finishing as the RB1 in his rookie season (2018). Saquon stayed very healthy, only missed Week 18 and that was a formality. During the regular season he rushed 345 times, by far his most ever, eclipsed 2,000 rushing yards, but only caught 33 passes, his lowest in a full season. The Tush Push cost him a ton of rushing TDs (11?), but he still managed 13 TDs. He finished the 2024 season (regular + playoffs) with 482 total touches, the 6th most in a season since 1998. That’s a lot of touches. The odds of him sustaining a new injury in 2025 increased massively with that workload. The last 2 RBs who eclipsed the 400+ touch mark (and nowhere near 482) was Christian McCaffrey in 2019 and then again in 2023. What happened the following season after each 400+ touch season? He broke down. In 2020 CMC only played in 3 games, and then last season he only played in 4.
Saquon is entering his age-28 season and has a pretty long injury history. He missed 3 games in 2019 with a right high-ankle sprain, then 14 games in 2020 with a torn right ACL. Then he missed 4 games in 2021 with another ankle sprain, this time on the left, and then in 2023 he suffered another right high-ankle sprain, causing him to miss 3 games. The offensive line is still elite. The offense is nearly identical to one that just won the Super Bowl, so it's very possible that Saquon challenges for the RB1 spot. If I were a betting man I wouldn’t have him finishing in my top 3 - his injury risk is too high.
Please see the article I wrote recently on Saquon.
Chuba Hubbard surprised many in 2024, finishing as the RB14 with 293 touches on a relatively poor offense. Many were concerned about the presence of Jonathon Brooks, but unfortunately he tore his ACL again and will miss the entire 2025 season. Hubbard’s only backfield competition is Rico Dowdle and the Panthers also added Trevor Etienne. It’s unclear how the carries will be split, but Hubbard was very reliable last year and should get more opportunities to thrive and score as Bryce Young hopefully takes the next step forward in his development, aided by the addition of promising rookie Tetairoa McMillan and veteran Hunter Renfrow. He’s a dark horse candidate.
There are a couple of players entering their 7th NFL season that have potential:
Josh Jacobs
Tony Pollard
David Montgomery
Out of those Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard have the highest potential, with an outside chance of David Montgomery making noise if something significant were to happen to Jahmyr Gibbs. Remember he did finish as the RB4 back in 2020.
Josh Jacobs is an interesting name here, as he finished 3 times in the top 8, including the RB3 in 2022, and the RB6 last year. With Jordan Love getting injuries and their WRs struggling, there were several missed opportunities for Jacobs last year. MarShawn Lloyd, his primary backup, essentially missed the entire season due to various injuries. Matt LaFleur has always been a split RB coach, dating back to his first coaching season in 2018 when Derrick Henry stupidly split carries with Dion Lewis. That continued in Green Bay with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, then with AJ Dillon. Last season Josh Jacobs was expected to split work with MarShawn Lloyd, but a myriad of injuries headlined by a recurrent hamstring strain prevented that split from happening. My suspicion is that LaFleur goes back to the 60/40 split he loves and Lloyd steals touches from Jacobs, thereby decreasing his potential from finishing as the RB1.
Tony Pollard is another interesting name on this list. Pollard finished as the RB8 in 2022, the RB14 in 2023 before suffering that significant lower leg injury that, in my opinion, caused him to struggle in 2024 - his first year with the Titans. Despite the coaching staff wanting to split touches between Pollard and Spears, Pollard has shown his potential in the past and should finally be 100% post-procedure. Despite that injury, Pollard has actually missed the least amount of games for active RBs who have played 5+ seasons, with 5 games missed, which is insane. He gets to play with Cam Ward, and will be flanked by Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, and Elic Ayomanor.
After struggling to stay healthy his first 2 seasons, Kyren Williams only missed 1 game in 2024. He’s impressively finished as the RB7 in back-to-back seasons, despite averaging significantly less volume per game in 2024 than 2023. Sean McVay loves his bellcows, so as long as he’s healthy, Kyren Williams has a fighting chance to finish in the top 7. The Rams added sneaky runner Jarquez Hunter in the draft, adding to Blake Corum. Still only 24 years old, Williams definitely has potential to finish as the RB1 if he’s able to stay healthy in 2025.
De’Von Achane is not the biggest back - he’s 5’9” and 188 lbs. I personally thought he was going to be too brittle after missing 6 games in 2023, but Achane surprised in 2024. He stayed healthy, playing in all 17 games, finishing as the RB5. Similar to Alvin Kamara, Achane is much more of a receiving specialist than he is a runner. He averaged less than 4.5 YPC in 2024 after averaging over 7.7 YPC in his rookie season. Achane caught 78 passes in 2024, which is 10 more than the next-best RB (Kamara). If he was a WR, Achane would have finished with the 20th most catches, with only 3 less than Tyreek Hill. Tua’s health actually significantly impacts Achane’s abilities, as Achane went from 23 and 29.5 fantasy points over the 1st two games with Tua at QB to scoring 8.8, 5.9, 2.7, and 10.5 over the next 4 games without him. That’s a huge drop from 20.9 PPG with Tua to 6.9 PPG without Tua. The talent is there. The usage is there. It sounds like the Dolphins will likely use Jaylen Wright as the primary rushing back with Raheem Mostert now in Las Vegas (he swapped with Alexander Mattison) and they added Ollie Gordon as well. Achane could potentially see a dip in his rushing production, which would further hurt his case as finishing as the RB1. I don’t like how his value is tied to Tua, who is one concussion away from retirement. Too risky for me. Pass.
Chase Brown is probably the sneakiest target on this list. Started off the 2024 season splitting carries with Zack Moss. By Week 5 Moss was phased out and then by Week 8 Moss had suffered a season-ending neck injury that gave Brown the whole backfield with no competition. He had nearly 100% of the touches from Week 8 onward. Despite sitting out Week 18, he still finished as the RB10. He caught 54 passes and rushed 229 times. With Moss expected to be back, plus the Bengals added Tahj Brooks who could easily overtake Zach Moss' RB2 role in CIN, as he's a fantastic gap runner, and the Bengals run the 5th most in the league. If Brown continues his dominance in backfield touches and stays healthy, then there’s an outside chance he could finish as the RB1.
Breece Hall was so close to finishing as the RB1 in 2023, secondary to the crazy volume he received in the passing game towards the end of the season. He went from 95 targets in 2023 to 76 targets in 2024. Last year Hall struggled with TD opportunities, he only had 5 rushing touchdowns. His knee should be 100% from his 2022 ACL tear and things are starting to look up with Aaron Rodgers gone, Justin Fields in, and the hiring of a new coaching staff. I expect the Jets to turn to a run-heavy offense, so this could be very beneficial for Hall. Competition-wise, Hall is the most talented of the Jets RBs. If all goes well, Hall could finish in the top 5 again if he can bounce back to his 2023 level targets.
Rookies
As you can see, there have only been 2 rookies to finish as the RB1 over the past 25 years: Ezekiel Elliot in 2016, and Saquon Barkley in 2018. That’s it. Both of them were drafted in the top 5 picks of their respective NFL draft (Zeke 4th overall, Saquon 2nd overall). With Ashton Jeanty being drafted 6th overall to the Las Vegas Raiders, he has by far the highest likelihood of all of the rookie RBs to finish as the RB1 in 2025. In my opinion, he actually has the highest overall chance. Fresh legs, top 6 pick, and a coach who absolutely loves to run the ball (think Marshawn Lynch). As long as Jeanty stays healthy, he’s going to get crazy volume. The Raiders are going to want to get the ball in his hands as much as possible. Jeanty, Brock Bowers, and Jakobi Meyers will be Geno Smith’s primary targets.
Omarion Hampton had 2 fantastic seasons at UNC and now goes to a place that wants to run the ball - the Los Angeles Chargers. He’s been able to stay healthy, has great hands and can handle volume. His primary competition will be Najee Harris, the only RB who has played 3+ seasons and yet to miss a game. Harris simply doesn’t miss games. Even if the split is 60/40 for most of the season, Harris would be enough of a nuisance to Hampton to prevent him from being the RB1. The Chargers still have Ladd McConkey, QJ, added Tre Harris, Tyler Conklin and Mike Williams. Lots of mouths to feed.
The Steelers drafted Kaleb Johnson at 83rd overall, as the likely replacement for Najee Harris. Johnson is considered one of the top rookie RB outside zone demon runners, so Pittsburgh might be a perfect fit for him. Johnson’s primary flaw is that he simply doesn’t catch the ball. He only had 29 catches across all 3 seasons in college. That’s going to severely limit his ability to play all 3 downs and is going to allow Jaylen Warren to maintain at least 30-40% of the workload. This makes Johnson nearly impossible to become the RB1, as the average number of receptions for the RB1 over the past decade 72.5, with 9 of 10 having 40+ receptions (Zeke - 2016). Pass.
TreVeyon Henderson was an absolute beast in college. He’s electric. He’s a fantastic pass-blocker, and despite not getting a ton of volume in college he actually is the fastest RB to rush for over 1,000 yards with only 145 carries. He was the only RB in college to have 7+ YPC, 1,000+ rushing yards and 250+ receiving yards in 2024. He has the skillset to be the RB1. Yes Rhamondre Stevenson is still there, and he will take some carries away from Henderson but Stevenson’s struggled with fumbles whereas Henderson never lost a fumble in 667 career attempts. Back in 2022 Stevenson finished as the RB7 with 69 receptions and 210 carries. Yes this is a new regime, and Vrabel loves the run. Derrick Henry was the focal point of the offense, and with a revamped offensive line, Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Williams, there’s a chance the Patriots shift to more running and Henderson could be the bellcow. He has the 3rd-best rookie odds in my opinion of finishing as the RB1. Monster potential.
Quinshon Judkins was surprisingly picked by the Browns at 36th overall. He’s a mirror-image of Omarion Hampton in terms of size, and he has a nose for the endzone (50 TDs in 42 games). Judkins has a high floor and a high ceiling; think Joe Mixon. He’s never missed a game (42 games), so his injury history is minimal, and he’s shown he can handle volume - 19 touches/game. Judkins has solid receiving abilities, as he caught at least 15 passes in all 3 college seasons. There’s a chance he loses 3rd downs to Jerome Ford, and the Browns also drafted Dylan Sampson who could get work too. I love Judkins’ talent and believe he can be a perfect replacement for Nick Chubb but I have some concerns about him not getting enough volume to finish in the top 3 for his rookie season. Less likely but not impossible.
Here’s my tiers of who have the best chances of finishing as the RB1 in 2025 using PPR scoring.
Most likely:
Ashton Jeanty
Bijan Robinson
Jahymr Gibbs
Next Tier:
Bucky Irving
Alvin Kamara
3rd Tier:
Saquon Barkley
Christian McCaffrey
Derrick Henry
Kyren Williams
Jonathan Taylor
De’Von Achane
4th Tier:
Chuba Hubbard
Omarion Hampton
Breece Hall
Chase Brown
TreVeyon Henderson
Josh Jacobs
Tony Pollard
5th Tier:
Aaron Jones
Quinshon Judkins
Issac Guerendo
Kaleb Johnson