Written by: Jesse Morse, MD
Recently @ Pat_Thornton tweeted this chart using Mike Clay's (@MikeClayNFL) team rankings from 2024. Conclusion in short: For fantasy football it is smart to target teams with good offenses and bad defenses.
This concept makes sense as you want teams that are going to be able to score, and that always seem to be in shootouts because their defense can't stop the opposing offense from scoring.
Let's take a look at the chart and break it down a bit.
Teams with top offenses (top 12):
BAL
PHI
KC
BUF
DET
CIN
TB
WSH
LAR
LAC
SF
CHI
Teams with worst offenses (bottom 12):
SF
WSH
ATL
LVR
TEN
LAC
CIN
DAL
TB
NO
MIA
JAX
If we take the difference between their offense score and defensive score based on Mike Clay’s NFL team rankings you will see that there are only a handful of teams that have over a 15 point different between the two. These are as follows:
WSH (23)
SF
CIN
LAC
TB
Now obviously some of these rankings could dramatically change with new personnel, coaching etc but we can get at least a good idea of which teams and players that should be good targets in 2025.
There are as follows:
QBs
Jayden Daniels
Brock Purdy
Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert
Baker Mayfield
RBs
Brian Robinson Jr.
Austin Ekeler
Jacory-Croskey Merritt
Christian McCaffrey
Issac Guerrendo
Jordan James
Chase Brown
Tahj Brooks
Omarion Hampton
Najee Harris
Bucky Irving
Rachaad White
WRs
Terry McLaurin (monitor contract dispute)
Deebo Samuel
Jauan Jennings
Brandon Aiyuk
Ricky Pearsall
Jacob Cowing
Ja’Marr Chase
Tee Higgins
Ladd McConkey
Tre Harris
Quentin Johnston
Mike Evans
Chris Godwin
Jalen McMillan
Emeka Egbuka
TEs
Zach Ertz
Ben Sinnott
George Kittle
Mike Gesicki
Tyler Conklin
Oronde Gadsden II
Cade Otton
The players in italics are some my favorites heading into 2025.
If we concentrate this list to the players that have the most potential we get:
QBs
Jayden Daniels
Brock Purdy
Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert
Baker Mayfield
RBs
Brian Robinson Jr.
Jacory-Croskey Merritt
Christian McCaffrey
Issac Guerrendo
Chase Brown
Tahj Brooks
Omarion Hampton
Bucky Irving
WRs
Terry McLaurin (monitor contract dispute)
Deebo Samuel
Jauan Jennings
Ricky Pearsall
Ja’Marr Chase
Tee Higgins
Ladd McConkey
Tre Harris
Quentin Johnston
Mike Evans
Chris Godwin
TEs
Zach Ertz
George Kittle
Mike Gesicki
My teams will be loaded with these players.
This isn’t an end all be all list, but it just adds another layer of information and reasoning as to why to pick one player over another.