This article, written by Dr. Jesse Morse, reviews all of the volume of running back touches from both the regular season and the playoffs dating back to 1998. I chose a 'cutoff' of 400 touches because that's a nice round number but also one that not many RBs have reached that threshold over the past 25 years as you will see.
Barkley had 482 total touches between the regular season & playoffs in 2024. That’s a lot of touches.
In fact, that’s the 6th most by any RB over the past 27 years, and 4 of those 5 were from 2000 or earlier. Demarco Murray in 2014 was the exception.
Out of the 9 RBs that have 460+ touches in a season since 1998, 7 of the 9 (88%) finished outside the top 8 the following season in fantasy (PPR), with the average finish of RB28, and they played an average of 10.8 games.
There have been only 28 running backs since 1998 that have had for 400+ touches in a season (regular season + playoffs). They have accounted for 41 instances.
Let’s look at the last RBs that reached the 400+ touch mark in a season (regular season + playoffs) and how they did the following season. There have only been 4 RBs that have had 400+ touches since 2017, and CMC did it twice.
Even if we say that there is only one RB per team, and theres 32 teams, over the past 27 years, that's a total of 864 possibilities to rush for 400+ touches in a season. Yet there have only been 41 instances where this has occurred, 4.7%. However if we calculate this over the past 10 years (2014-2024), that's 320 possibilities, yet only 6 instances, 1.8%. Its rare.
Previously that was relatively common, as there were 26 instances from 1998 to 2006, 11 for the next decade (2007-2017), and only 4 since 2018, now including Saquon Barkley in 2024. That’s rare air.
As you can see the game has changed. This is likely a multifactorial problem ranging from changes in mindset, changes in medications, changes in play-calling, and the game itself has changed significantly.
In the late 1990s and the early 2000s the NFL was filled with ‘bellcow’ backs. There were 18 different RBs from 1998 to 2006 that had over 400 touches in a season, 26 instances total. After that there was a sharp decline, as the NFL shifted to a pass-dominant attack, and the volume for running backs significantly declined. Teams started depending on multiple running backs, less on a single person, diversifying the ‘risk’ of injury and optimizing the strength of each player.
Since 2009, 16 years ago, there have only been 10 NFL RBs that have touched the ball over 400 times in a season. They are: Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Demarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley.
Overall the breakdown of how the RBs did the following season is fascinating. The numbers have dramatically changed over the past 27 years. 41% of them finished in the top 10 (PPR) the following season, 24% in the RB11-19 range and 34% finished RB20+.
The numbers from before 2018 are much better than the past 7 years, where 39-50% of the RBs finished in the top 10 the following season, 20-28% in the RB11-19 range and 30-32% finished RB20+. The problem with the recent data is that the number has been so low. With a total of only 4 instances, and Le’Veon Bell doesn’t count because that was the season he decided to ‘sit out.’ Zeke did well (RB3) but CMC really struggled both times.
That’s a lot of ‘wear and tear’ on the joints. On the ligaments and tendons, especially in the lower extremities where RBs face their biggest issues.
Think meniscus injuries in the knee, cartilage (arthritis), high-ankle sprains, hamstring strains, calf strains, midfoot sprains and turf toe.
Saquon is entering his age-28 season and has a pretty long injury history. He missed 3 games in 2019 with a right high-ankle sprain, then 14 games in 2020 with a torn right ACL. Then he missed 4 games in 2021 with another ankle sprain, this time on the left, and then in 2023 he suffered another right high-ankle sprain, causing him to miss 3 games. Similar to how CMC has broken down, would it be surprising if Saquon struggled to stay healthy in 2025? No, not at all.
After both of CMC’s high-volume elite seasons (2019, 2023) he really struggled to stay healthy; he played 3 games in 2020 and 4 games last season.
It’s possible that Saquon repeats what Ezekiel Elliott did in 2019 after his 433 touch season in 2018, where he finished as the RB3 with 355 touches. The major difference between Saquon and Zeke is injury history. Zeke has been super healthy throughout his entire career. Saquon, as just mentioned, has obviously struggled.
Yes Philly still has an elite offensive line and high-scoring offense with really no upgrades or downgrades at all entering 2025. His backup Kenneth Gainwell is now with the Steelers, and his primary backup and handcuff is Will Shipley, whom I will be targeting later in drafts.
Saquon’s currently going as the RB4 in redrafts. I’d prefer 3 RBs over him without question: Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Ashton Jeanty. Then the decision gets tougher, as the next grouping seems to be Saquon, De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, Omarion Hampton, Jonathan Taylor, and Bucky Irving. The next grouping is some mix of Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson, Josh Jacobs, James Cook, and Kyren Williams. Some people will sprinkle in CMC, Alvin Kamara, Kenneth Walker, Kaleb Johnson, RJ Harvey and Chase Brown in this group.
Besides Christian McCaffrey, I believe that Saquon Barkley has the highest injury risk for running backs in 2025 of this entire group.
The talent is still there. The volume will still be there. The offensive line is still elite, but I have significant concerns about Saquon’s ability to play at least 15 games this year.
He’s a sell for me in dynasty. I’ve already sold my only share, trading him for Bucky Irivng and others. I’d rather be a year early than a year late.
Saquon’s cost is justifiably very high, but as someone who’s studied all of his injuries, I’m going to err on the side of caution and recommend avoiding him in 2025 at his current ADP.