Earlier this week Ryan Heath tweeted about Missed Tackles Forced vs. Yards After Contact per Attempt for the 2024 season [@FantasyPtsData]
I’m going to use this to highlight my favorite RBs this year and which RBs I’m targeting in my upcoming drafts.
Here’s the conclusions he highlighted:
Bucky Irving, Ken Walker, and James Conner remain elite runners
Jordan Mason + Aaron Jones could be a fun backfield
Wonder if Ray Davis ever gets more chances
Looking at the graph you can see the area for players we want to target is the top right: More Missed Tackles, More Yards After Contact. Here we find: Bucky Irving, Ken Walker, James Conner, Jordan Mason, Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Cam Akers (?), Jerome Ford and Devin Singletary (?).
The first 7 names shouldn’t be particularly surprising. Bucky Irving is one of my favorite RBs to target this year, I’m getting him everywhere I can. I have concerns regarding Walker’s ability to stay healthy but the talent has always been there, I won’t reach for him but I’m willing to draft Kenneth Walker as my RB1 if I’ve missed on the guys I have above him. James Conner defied the odds and stayed really healthy last year, not sure I’m willing to roll the dice again on the that, maybe depending on his ADP.
Jordan Mason now finds himself in Minnesota, expected to complement Aaron Jones. I like him more as a flex than my RB1 or RB2. Bijan is an elite stud and should be a top 3 off the board. I still think King Henry has another 1-2 years of elite production in him, only because he’s a genetic freak, but he’s more of an RB2 than an RB1 in 2025 for me. Josh Jacobs is an interesting name, and has shown he’s effective and reliable. Fantastic RB2 target or RB1 if I’m not targeting a top 5 RB.
The Browns drafted 2 RBs, including Quinshon Judkins pretty early, so Ford’s role is likely to be minimal. Fellow FAU alumni Devin Singletary is a surprising name here, and it will be interesting to see where he finds himself on the depth chart in New York. He’s a bench target at best regardless.
To date Cam Akers has yet to sign with a team. He looked really good after coming off an Achilles injury, as he actually suffered 2 different tears over the past 2 years. J.K. Dobbins amazed last year in his 1st year back from his Achilles tear, really being the first and only RB to do so in year one, defying the odds.
We see that elite studs like Jahymr Gibbs and De’Von Achane were really good at missing tackles but struggled to gain yards after contact surprisingly. If they can somehow improve in 2025, then they will join the group above. I’m willing to bet on that.
On the opposite end of the spectrum you have the guys who struggled to break tackles, and struggled to gain yards after contact. This list includes a list of not surprising names like Kareem Hunt and Alexander Mattison but did have some names I wasn’t expecting including Alvin Kamara, Kyren Williams, Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jonathan Taylor, Chase Brown and Saquon Barkley.
Besides Kamara, I’m likely avoiding the names on this list. Alvin Kamara is an exception to the rule as his receiving volume is silly (and I predominately play PPR), the QB play will be suspect, he’s owed a ton of money and there’s no elite options behind him.
Chase Brown really impressed in the 2nd half of last year, but much of that was strictly volume based. When Zach Moss suffered his season-ending neck injury, the Bengals didn’t have much of a choice but to keep Chase Brown on the field for nearly every play. The Bengals drafted Tahj Brooks and he is one of the best man/gap runners in the stacked RB 2025 draft class. The Bengals run the 5th most man schemes, so something tells me Brooks will be on the field contributing sooner than later. Moss is also returning as well.
Kyren Williams also seems to be a volume-dependent runner and he’s struggled with his fair share of injuries. McVay is an expert at optimizing his draft picks for fantasy purposes, as we’ve seen with Cooper Kupp in the past, and Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua lately. I’m not ready to give up on Blake Corum yet, and he’s someone I’m going to be targeting later in drafts. The skill set is there, and he is one Kyren Williams injury away from elite volume, and at the end of the day, volume is king for RBs.
Jarquez Hunter is another sneaky pick by Sean McVay that I’ll have shares of. He’s excellent in running in a man scheme, and the Rams run man scheme at the highest rate in the NFL.
As a Patriots fan, I’ve experienced the rollercoaster of emotions that is Rhamondre Stevenson. He’s flashed elite stuff but hasn’t been able to put it all together. At one point last year he was essentially benched for Antonio Gibson. The Patriots surprisingly drafted TreVeyon Henderson early in the 2nd round, and his skill set is a perfect match for Josh McDaniels’ heavy man/gap play calling. I love his fit and he could smash early. I’ll definitely have some shares.
Some other guys that I’m targeting in this year’s drafts include Chuba Hubbard, Bhayshal Tuten, Kaleb Johnson, and RJ Harvey. This is one of those years where I don’t mind relying on 1-2 rookie RBs as my starting RBs because I think several could smash and finish in the top 12, well ahead of their ADP.
RBs I’m targeting:
Bijan Robinson
Jahmyr Gibbs
Ashton Jeanty
De’Von Achane
Bucky Irving
TreVeyon Henderson
RJ Harvey
Omarion Hampton
Kenneth Walker
Kaleb Johnson
Josh Jacobs
Alvin Kamara
Derrick Henry
Chuba Hubbard
Jordan Mason
Bhayshal Tuten
Jaydon Blue
Tahj Brooks
Blake Corum
Issac Guerendo
Jaylen Wright
Jarquez Hunter
Jordan James
Devin Neal
Cam Skattebo
Brashard Smith
Jacory-Croskey Merritt