May 1
Redraft Thoughts
The # of catchable targets per game tells us alot about which QBs/teams to target and which to avoid. We see that in 2024 the CIN Bengals lead the NFL with 31.5 catchable targets per game, led by the dynamic duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins with Joe Burrow slinging the ball a ton per game.
They were followed by the Browns, Cowboys, Bucs, Dolphins, Seahawks then the Raiders. On the other end of the spectrum you have the Packers, Colts, Ravens, and Eagles. The Eagles, despite managing to win the Super Bowl, ended up running the ball a ton, thereby limiting the upside of AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. The Ravens were similar; besides Zay Flowers, who was a WR2 at best most weeks, the majority of the other receivers were often irrelevant or TD-dependent. The Colts, especially with Anthony Richardson at QB, had the lowest catchable targets per game with 16.5, just about half as many as the Bengals. Yes when he was healthy Josh Downs had a couple good games but in general that offense with AR at QB was a nightmare for fantasy points. If Daniel Jones secures the job there is more potential but it may be a situation to avoid altogether.
All in all, if I'm targeting WRs in 2025, I'm going to target offenses that throw the ball the most.
So these are the guys I'm targeting:
Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Mike Gesicki, Chase Brown
Jerry Jeudy, Cedric TIllman, David Njoku, Quinshon Judkins
CeeDee Lamb
Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving
Tyreek Hill, De'Von Achane, Jonnu Smith
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Ashton Jeanty
Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Isiah Pacheco
Garrett Wilson
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahymr Gibbs
Malik Nabers
Puka Nacua, Davante Adams
Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Brenton Strange
Ladd McConkey, Tre Harris
Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Nico Collins
Jauan Jennings, George Kittle
So these are the guys I'm avoiding:
Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, Tyler Warren
AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Saquon Barkley
Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Isiah Likely
Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, Tucker Kraft
DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth
Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman
DJ Moore, Cole Kmet
Brandon Aiyuk
Tank Dell
Rookies to Target in Redraft
QBs: None [Cam Ward in SuperFlex]
RBs: Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, RJ Harvey, Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson, Kaleb Johnson
WRs: Tet McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Jayden Higgins, Kyle Williams, Tre Harris
TEs: None [Colston Loveland in deeper leagues]
Limit your expectations with Tet McMillan in his rookie season. I think around 6 targets per game is realistic. That's not going to get you very far. Think Marvin Harrison Jr. last year.
Dynasty Thoughts
From Jacob Gibbs' work:
Top rookie RB outside zone 'demons' = Bhayshul Tuten, Jaydon Blue, Jordan James, DJ Giddens, Kaleb Johnson
Jarquez Hunter, who is a fantastic man-scheme runner, landed with the #1 team in man rate, the Rams
Omarion Hampton is a great fit for the Chargers, as they run the 12th most inside zone, a skillset he excels at
Tahj Brooks could easily overtake Zach Moss' RB2 role in CIN, as he's a fantastic gap runner, and the Bengals run the 5th most in the league
TreVeyon Henderson is a perfect fit for the Patriots' offense, as Josh McDaniels loves to call plays in a heavy man scheme
The Commanders love to run inside zone and that makes Jacory Croskey-Merritt a perfect fit for them, beautiful deep sleeper
