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Breakout WRs - Identifying the studs

📅 July 31, 2024 ✍️ jmkuq
This is a list of all the relevant WRs from each WR class over the past 7 years, and the ones highlighted in green have a top 24 finish (PPR) to their name. As you can see from the 2017-2021 classes, there are at least 4 top 25 WRs in each class. The 2019 and 2020 draft classes were loaded, and currently make up the majority of the top 10. From 2024's current top 10 in ADP (Lamb, Hill, Jefferson, Chase, ARSB, AJB, Puka, Wilson, Adams, and Marvin Harrison Jr) 7 were drafted from 2019-2023. The exceptions include Tyreek Hill (2016), Davante Adams (2014) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (2024). Only 13 rookie WRs finished in the top 24 in their rookie season over the past 7 years, see chart below. All but 3 finished WR13+. The exceptions: Puka Nacua, Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. The 3rd year breakouts seem to be common. The following WRs broke out in their 3rd season: Cooper Kupp (WR24, WR51, WR5), Chris Godwin (WR67, WR29, WR2), Deebo Samuel (WR32, WR96, WR3), Diontae Johnson (WR41, WR21, WR8) Hunter Renfrow (WR54, WR60, WR11), CeeDee Lamb (WR22, WR19, WR5), Brandon Aiyuk (WR35, WR35, WR15), Tee Higgins (WR28, WR24, WR18) Jerry Jeudy (WR47, WR85, WR22) and Nico Collins (WR86, WR77, WR12) The most likely 3rd year breakout candidates in 2024 are Garrett Wilson (WR21, WR26), Chris Olave (WR25, WR16) and Drake London (WR21, WR37) There are a couple of other players that have an outside chance, including: Christian Watson (WR41, WR68), George Pickens (WR39, WR30) Jameson Williams (WR154, WR82), Romeo Doubs (WR72, WR36), Jahan Dotson (WR51, WR56), Treylon Burks (WR78, WR123), Wan'Dale Robinson (WR115, WR53), Khalil Shakir (WR130, WR61) and John Metchie III (N/A, WR138) The following have potential to break out in their 4th year: Rashod Bateman (WR69, WR112, WR85), Elijah Moore (WR49, WR81, WR54), Josh Palmer (WR75, WR37, WR65) There are about 19 rookie WRs that could finish in the top 24, but realistically only about 6. Those names are: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman and Brian Thomas Jr.

Finished Top 24

 
2017 (5) 2018 (6) 2019 (7) 2020 (7) 2021 (5) 2022 (2) 2023 (2) 2024
Cooper Kupp D.J. Moore A.J. Brown CeeDee Lamb Ja'Marr Chase Garrett Wilson Puka Nacua
Chris Godwin Calvin Ridley Deebo Samuel Justin Jefferson Amon-Ra St. Brown Chris Olave Jordan Addison
Mike Williams Christian Kirk D.K. Metcalf Brandon Aiyuk Jaylen Waddle
JuJu Smith-Schuster Courtlard Sutton Diontae Johnson Tee Higgins DeVonta Smith
Kenny Golladay D.J. Chark Marquise Brown Michael Pittman Jr. Nico Collins
Michael Gallup Terry McLaurin Chase Claypool
Hunter Renfrow Jerry Jeudy

Had fantasy impact but never a top 24 season:

 
Corey Davis Marquez Valdes-Scantling Mecole Hardman Henry Ruggs III Kadarius Toney Drake London Jaxon Smith-Njigba Marvin Harrison Jr.
Curtis Samuel Tre'Quan Smith Parris Campbell Gabriel Davis Rashod Bateman Christian Watson Quentin Johnston Malik Nabers
Zay Jones Justin Watson Darius Slayton Laviska Shenault Jr. Elijah Moore Geoge Pickens Zay Flowers Rome Odunze
Josh Reynolds Van Jefferson Rondale Moore Jameson Williams Jonathan Mingo Brian Thomas Jr.
Mack Hollins Gabriel Davis Josh Palmer Romeo Doubs Jayden Reed Xavier Worthy
Noah Brown Darnell Mooney Jahan Dotson Rashee Rice Ricky Pearsall
Donovan Peoples-Jones Treylon Burks Marvin Mims Jr. Xavier Legette
Wan'Dale Robinson Tank Dell Keon Coleman
Khalil Shakir Dontayvion Wicks Ladd McConkey
John Metchie III Josh Downs Ja'Lynn Polk
Demario Douglas Adonai Mitchell
Jalin Hyatt Malachi Corley
Cedric Tillman Jermain Burton
Michael Wilson Roman Wilson
Tre Tucker Jalen McMillan
Tyler Scott Luke McCaffrey
Troy Franklin
Javon Baker
Devontez Walker

Finished Top 24 in rookie season

 
Players Class of Rookie Season Finish
Puka Nacua 2023 WR4
Ja'Marr Chase 2021 WR5
Justin Jefferson 2020 WR6
Jaylen Waddle 2021 WR13
Juju Smith-Schuster 2017 WR20
Amon-Ra St. Brown 2021 WR21
A.J. Brown 2019 WR21
Garrett Wilson 2022 WR21
CeeDee Lamb 2020 WR22
Calvin Ridley 2018 WR22
Jordan Addison 2023 WR23
Chase Claypool 2020 WR24
Cooper Kupp 2017 WR24

Total # of WRs drafted

 
Total # of WRs drafted
2017 32
2018 34
2019 28
2020 35
2021 35
2022 28
2023 33
225
5.7%
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